The Barometer Online

Hurricanes in Florida could spell a wetter winter for Oregon.

This year's active hurricane season in the southeastern United States may play a key role in a potentially wet Northwest winter, according to climate specialists.

Since the landfall of hurricane Charley on Aug. 13, Florida and other surrounding states have faced three other major hurricanes, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne.

As of Wednesday, Jeanne had just moved out to the Atlantic Ocean after dumping four and half inches of rain on New York City and over seven inches on Nantucket Island.

Floridians, meanwhile, are recovering from widespread devastation of homes and buildings, power failures and loss of life.

The hurricane season has about two months left before the tropics are expected to settle down.

"Traditionally, a busy hurricane year is followed by a wet winter up here," said George Taylor, Oregon's state climatologist.

"This is not a cause-and-effect issue, but they are both affected by the same thing."

It is believed that tropical Pacific cycles that come around in periods of 20-25 years, also known as El Niño and La Niña, are key in the increase of hurricanes and wet northwest winters.

According to Taylor's report, "Long-Term Wet-dry Cycles in Oregon," a "conveyer belt" transports "warm ocean water from the Pacific through the Indian Ocean and into the Atlantic," while forcing cool water to sink and be transported backward along the same belt.

"Active hurricane years are almost always followed by wetter than average winter conditions in Portland, and inactive years by dry winters," according to the report.

"This is a strong link," Taylor said. "It's unmistakable."

Already, Oregon has seen an increase in rainfall at 2.41 inches this September, compared to an average of 1.5 inches.

"Our average high temperature has been 2.6 degrees below normal," Taylor said.

"This time of year, periods of dry and wet usually come on gradually. We had an unusually wet end of August and early September."

Another correlation relating to active hurricane years is the increased number of salmon in the Northwest.

"The last five years have been really big for salmon," Taylor said.

Taylor predicted this salmon revival in the mid 1990s when the state government was threatening to remove dams because the number of fish had dropped so low.

"I told them the salmon would come back without having to take out the dams, and they did."

Despite the unusual amount of storms to hit Florida recently, Taylor emphasized that hurricanes are part of a natural cycle.

"We saw a lot more hurricanes in the 1940s and 1950s," he said.

Karri Pasteris, staff writer

city@dailybarometer.com, 737-2231

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