Spring Break
More aid to states needed in the next stimulus bill
Sanjai Tripathi
Issue date: 2/25/09 Section: Forum
So the bailout bill passed. Democrats are declared political victors. Republicans are stewing.
Politically, this is going to be a problem for Democrats in the future because, while they rightfully claim credit for passing a fiscal stimulus bill that the country desperately needs right now, they are leaving one important point out of all the talk: we are going to need another bailout bill sometime in the not-too-distant future. And next time, they need to provide more aid to the states.
An important part of political adeptness is managing expectations. Former President George W. Bush's handlers knew this well, as shown in the days leading up to the presidential debates in 2000 and 2004. His campaign aids openly denigrated his debating skills and praised those of his opponents, thus creating the impression that even though their candidate didn't do so well in those debates, he still somehow "won" by simply not getting blown off the stage by superior debaters.
This shows that in politics, if you exceed expectations, you win. If you fail to meet high expectations, it's trouble. While including some exceptions, Democrats are mostly remembering to include the proper caveats when talking about what this bill will accomplish. As President Obama said, "[it] won't be the end of what we do to turn our economy around, but rather the beginning."
But I'm concerned that it isn't enough. For one thing, the press is hailing this as a major victory for the party, which sets expectations high. If it doesn't fix the economy quickly, people are going to doubt whether it was even helpful.
Meanwhile, economists are busily revising economic projections downward this month from their last rounds of projections; basically, economists now expect things to become worse than they previously expected. Where before they saw things bottoming out in late 2009 or early 2010, many are now pushing that estimate outward into the future.
However, economic downturns come in different shapes, and the question they are wrestling with now is which kind we are now having.
Politically, this is going to be a problem for Democrats in the future because, while they rightfully claim credit for passing a fiscal stimulus bill that the country desperately needs right now, they are leaving one important point out of all the talk: we are going to need another bailout bill sometime in the not-too-distant future. And next time, they need to provide more aid to the states.
An important part of political adeptness is managing expectations. Former President George W. Bush's handlers knew this well, as shown in the days leading up to the presidential debates in 2000 and 2004. His campaign aids openly denigrated his debating skills and praised those of his opponents, thus creating the impression that even though their candidate didn't do so well in those debates, he still somehow "won" by simply not getting blown off the stage by superior debaters.
This shows that in politics, if you exceed expectations, you win. If you fail to meet high expectations, it's trouble. While including some exceptions, Democrats are mostly remembering to include the proper caveats when talking about what this bill will accomplish. As President Obama said, "[it] won't be the end of what we do to turn our economy around, but rather the beginning."
But I'm concerned that it isn't enough. For one thing, the press is hailing this as a major victory for the party, which sets expectations high. If it doesn't fix the economy quickly, people are going to doubt whether it was even helpful.
Meanwhile, economists are busily revising economic projections downward this month from their last rounds of projections; basically, economists now expect things to become worse than they previously expected. Where before they saw things bottoming out in late 2009 or early 2010, many are now pushing that estimate outward into the future.
However, economic downturns come in different shapes, and the question they are wrestling with now is which kind we are now having.
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